CL for 12/6 and 12/7

quantumleap · Dec 6, 2005

Chelsea -0.5 -128 over Liverpool (Canbet)
Gotta go with Chelsea at home. Liverpool had been playing well until they stumbled last weekend.

Rangers pk -129 over Inter 2 units (PointBet)
Rangers need a win here while Inter has a place already wrapped up. Rangers at home.

Rosenborg/Lyon -114 under 3 (Pinnacle)
Hard to think that either team will be playing balls-out after both are already on to the next round.

chriscol · Dec 6, 2005

like your plays..have the same view on them, although i think Lyon has still enough to cover a rosenborg-team..but 2-0 would make it for both of us

MarkieMark+ · Dec 6, 2005

Liverpool arguably have the best defense in Europe right now and they will most likely play a 4-5-1 formation today. The Reds only need a Draw to win the Group so a 0-0 result looks like the probable outcome. In any event, UNDER is the only play that I will consider for this match.

MM

HPark1 · Dec 6, 2005

Lyon/Rosenborg game is tricky. Lyon will run out their youngsters while Rosenborg will field almost a full strength unit. Both coaches seem to want to play entertaining soccer and I expect the younger players to try to put on a show for the sell out crowd. Last year in a similar situation Lyon's young players thrashed Sparta Prague 5-0. I think this has the potential for many goals, despite the rainy conditions.

Nothing great as circumstances from other matches can greatly effect the play in matches but tried Schalke, Fener, Porto, Inter with the handicaps.

Rangers are in complete dissaray and I expect another embarassing loss to end McCleish dismal tenure with the Scottish side. Unless Bratislava is leading Porto (highly doubtful) Rangers will only need a draw to qualify anyways, thus +1/4 seems very enticing. Inter will not have a full strength side but they have more then enough quality on their bench to step up. Its expected Adriano and Martins will start up front, good luck Rangers!

Bratislava is simply not up to par for the Champions League. Their string of lucky results finally ended last matchday and I look for it to continue today. Porto is hoping for revenge after the shock 3-2 reverse after leading 2-0. Porto dominated the game and only a miracle provided the final result. Both teams need a victory to have hopes of progressing.

Handicap for Fener has now reached 1 1/4 which is too high imo. Everyone realizes a PSV win secures their place to the next round and assume they will handle the Turkish side. Probably the case but Fener still can qualify for the UEFA cup with a victory and remember they did beat this team at home. I think the 4-0 loss at home to Milan last matchday has skewed these odds a bit. Fener will have a more defensive alignment as they know PSV must win and I think this is an advantage for them.

Milan is another case of a big name getting too much respect. Schalke is way too good of a team for a one goal spread. Only concern is Schalke will likely need a victory to progress and if they don't have a lead late all out attacking could lead to a couple goals late in the match for Milan. Still Milan only need a draw and they will be more focused on defending then building up a scoreline.

gl

quantumleap · Dec 6, 2005

Markie Mark said:
Liverpool arguably have the best defense in Europe right now and they will most likely play a 4-5-1 formation today. The Reds only need a Draw to win the Group so a 0-0 result looks like the probable outcome. In any event, UNDER is the only play that I will consider for this match.

MM

The matches between these 2 oftentimes are defensive for the reason you mention here. Good luck.

AFLGuru · Dec 6, 2005

I defintely like the take on Schalke from all on this one. It is real hard to see Milan winning by multiple goals today, but even so, over makes for a great play. 5 goals perhaps in this one?

Also, I'm strongly considering there to be 21 goals scored today for the proverbial "grand salami." Milan/Schalke very well could produce fireworks, PSV needs to break out of a scoring slump and Fenerbache's defense could allow as such to happen, Lyon and Rosenborg really could go balls to the wall in this one, as anything can happen... With Lyon playing youngsters, their energy will be set on scoring. Wouldn't touch over 3 in that game, but 3 is a likely scenario. Porto and Artmedia could very well see 3-4 goals scored again as well. That being said, with all of these low scoring looking games out there, even just 1 per game for the rest might be enough.

I also hate using the martingale system, but we're due to see a bunch of goals on a matchday sooner or later in this competition...

quantumleap · Dec 6, 2005

HPark1 said:
Bratislava is simply not up to par for the Champions League. Their string of lucky results finally ended last matchday and I look for it to continue today. Porto is hoping for revenge after the shock 3-2 reverse after leading 2-0. Porto dominated the game and only a miracle provided the final result. Both teams need a victory to have hopes of progressing.

Handicap for Fener has now reached 1 1/4 which is too high imo. Everyone realizes a PSV win secures their place to the next round and assume they will handle the Turkish side. Probably the case but Fener still can qualify for the UEFA cup with a victory and remember they did beat this team at home. I think the 4-0 loss at home to Milan last matchday has skewed these odds a bit. Fener will have a more defensive alignment as they know PSV must win and I think this is an advantage for them.

I remember you making these comments about Bratislava a couple weeks ago. I may decide to go with Porto.

I agree that the handicap is too high with Fener at 1 1/4.

Thanks for all the comments everyone.

HPark1 · Dec 6, 2005

Might not want to bother with Porto, reading that the field is in terrible shape. Been raining there all day and I'm guessing their pitch isn't the greatest. I still believe in Porto but with a miserable field it can negate the skill differential a bit.

There should be plenty of good halftime action at Pinnacle. Will watch the Milan game and try to suggest a play there.

Careful with the GS over Guru. Its too unpredictable with all the scenario's. All depends on early goals in some of these games. If teams like Fener, Milan, Porto/Art, Inter score an early goal we could see wide open affairs the rest of the way. However with so much on the line I expect many of these teams to play very cautious early so its a catch 22.

AFLGuru · Dec 6, 2005

If no one minds me chiming in, here's an interesting thought... The general consensus does seem to be on Schalke and the over in that game. So what about this?

First half's o/u is 1. Schalke is getting 0.5 goals to start with. I'm gonna go with Schalke in the 1st half and take over the goal. If Schalke scores, I'm golden. If they don't, I really just root for the score not to be 1-0. It's roughly a 2.5 unit bet that says Schalke scores in the 1st half, though 0-0 isn't the worse case scenario and if a Schalke goal really doesn't guarantee winning anything either, as a 1-0 Schalke first half loses juice as well. But I'll risk at most 1.20 units (though 2.38 are being wagered in actuality) that says Schalke scores in the 1st half OR it's 0-0. So my wagers...

Schalke (+0.5) 1.2/1.0
Over (1) 1.18/1

Here's to a 1-1 HT score... simple as that...

HPark1 · Dec 6, 2005

I really believe the Milan/Schalke game will get off to a very slow start. Milan has no need to attack and send players forward while Schalke will be very careful not to conceed. 0-0 seems very plausible.

quantumleap · Dec 6, 2005

AFLGuru said:
I defintely like the take on Schalke from all on this one. It is real hard to see Milan winning by multiple goals today, but even so, over makes for a great play. 5 goals perhaps in this one?

Also, I'm strongly considering there to be 21 goals scored today for the proverbial "grand salami." Milan/Schalke very well could produce fireworks, PSV needs to break out of a scoring slump and Fenerbache's defense could allow as such to happen, Lyon and Rosenborg really could go balls to the wall in this one, as anything can happen... With Lyon playing youngsters, their energy will be set on scoring. Wouldn't touch over 3 in that game, but 3 is a likely scenario. Porto and Artmedia could very well see 3-4 goals scored again as well. That being said, with all of these low scoring looking games out there, even just 1 per game for the rest might be enough.

I also hate using the martingale system, but we're due to see a bunch of goals on a matchday sooner or later in this competition...

The EPL and even the low-scoring French Ligue 1 are now starting to see more goals. I noticed this some time during the middle of the season last year as well. I'm wondering if the players have been able to get their plays down now that they've been working together for a couple months.

AFLGuru · Dec 6, 2005

Also gonna take a stab at Schalke to win this puppy at +677 at Pinnacle, as well as over 2.5 at +104 at Olympic. Y'all have got me sold. 3-2 Schalke would be real nice.

So what I'm gonna go with on the day unless I get talked into anything else... (also, keep in mind that the units are all relative... It wouldn't surprise me to get swept today, and I could easy make it up with my NCAA play later today. really just playing around because I like watching soccer money...)

Milan/Schalke over 2.5 (3 units +104)
Milan/Schalke over 1 1H (1 unit -118)
Schalke (ml) (0.25 units +677)
Schalke (+0.5) 1H (1 unit -120)
Over 20.5 combined (1 unit -101)

And purely a gut feeling and a action play because here in the States all we get is Liverpool/Chelsea without a dish...

Chelsea/Liverpool over 2 (1 unit -117)

AFLGuru · Dec 6, 2005

HPark1 said:
I really believe the Milan/Schalke game will get off to a very slow start. Milan has no need to attack and send players forward while Schalke will be very careful not to conceed. 0-0 seems very plausible.

I've got a hard time believing that in this one both teams aren't going all out for 3 points. Can't see Milan sitting back at home, especially knowing the way to win the group is by winning the match and Schalke knows a win is the only option, assuming PSV takes 3 points from Fenerbache. Really hoping for the obvious to happen in Eindhoven, which really could get the fireworks going the rest of the match. Shevchenko can find holes in that defense, especially if Schalke has to commit more to the front line for an outright win.

AFLGuru · Dec 6, 2005

All of what I play in soccer is purely on gutshot. I know nothing about this game and simply read match reports. I've seen Rosenborg on TV once in my 3 years really following European soccer. I've seen Real maybe 4 or 5 times. AC Milan, maybe twice. So it's all on gutshot and listening to everyone else.

You almost must remember that there's a lot on the line in two groups. Everywhere else the games are just for fun, and just for fun games ANYTHING can happen in. Even 3 games combining for 2 goals in them can still result in over 20.5 quite easily with just one ridiculous 4-2 match... and we haven't had that ridiculous match in some time. Especially with a team like Olympiakos.... how often do you get to say in Greece "We beat Real Madrid" whether it truly means anything or not? Team morale can always be boosted by things like that. But again, I'm banking on a bunch of goals in the group E games... really hoping to see 7 or 8 between those two and then needing 2 a game everywhere else to win. But again, it's not any significant amount of money totalled up I have out there. Just for fun. We all cut loose at some points, and being 20, having a paper due tomorrow that I really don't want to work on for the next couple hours, a couple bucks on a few soccer matches is just what the doctor ordered :103631605

Don't take my handicapping that serious. Y'all know WAY more about this stuff than I do, and I'm not even gonna pretend to know what I'm saying. It's all about learning experiences.

HPark1 · Dec 6, 2005

That 0-0 scoreline was for halftime, not the game. Stakes are too high for a wide open game early. Schalke has the entire game to get a victory, they won't risk getting behind early.

AFLGuru · Dec 6, 2005

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=698 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=150 background=/images/mr/left.gif><TABLE borderColor=#008080 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=149 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=plu>Line up</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=tbl2 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=149 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=5></TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 1.</TD><TD>Petr Cech</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 6.</TD><TD>Ricardo Carvalho</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 13.</TD><TD>William Gallas</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 20.</TD><TD>Paulo Ferreira</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 26.</TD><TD>John Terry</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 5.</TD><TD>Mickael Essien</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 8.</TD><TD>Frank Lampard</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 11.</TD><TD>Damien Duff</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 15.</TD><TD>Didier Drogba</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 16.</TD><TD>Arjen Robben</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 22.</TD><TD>Eidur Gudjohnsen</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE borderColor=#008080 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=149 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=plu>Bench</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=tbl2 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=149 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=5></TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 23.</TD><TD>Carlo Cudicini</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 29.</TD><TD>Robert Huth</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 3.</TD><TD>Asier Del Horno</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 14.</TD><TD>Geremi</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 19.</TD><TD>Lassana Diarra</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 24.</TD><TD>Shaun Wright-Phillips</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 12.</TD><TD>Carlton Cole</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><CENTER>

Coach: Jose Mourinho</CENTER></TD><TD vAlign=top width=398 bgColor=#d7e8e9><TABLE height=2 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=1 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR height=22><TD class=club2 width=178>Chelsea </TD><TD width=1 bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=res2 width=40>0 : 0</TD><TD width=1 bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=club2 width=178>Liverpool </TD></TR><TR height=16><TD class=kick> Kick off: 20:45, Att: 0</TD><TD width=1 bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=status></TD><TD width=1 bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=kick align=right>Referee: Herbert Fandel </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=178 bgColor=#ffffff><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width=1 bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#ffffff> </TD><TD width=1 bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD vAlign=top width=178 bgColor=#ffffff><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE height=2 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=1 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#c4c7ce cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=b_title colSpan=9>Q U I C K B E T S</TD></TR><TR><TD rowSpan=2> </TD><TD class=b_bgT colSpan=3>1 X 2</TD><TD width=1 rowSpan=3></TD><TD class=b_bgT colSpan=4>Asian Handicaps</TD></TR><TR class=b_bg0><TD width=48>1</TD><TD width=48>X</TD><TD width=48>2</TD><TD width=48>AH</TD><TD width=48>Home</TD><TD width=48>AH</TD><TD width=48>Away</TD></TR><TR class=b_bg1><TD class=b_bg0>

</TD><TD class=b_bgX>1.62</TD><TD class=b_bgX>3.25</TD><TD class=b_bgX>5.00</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE height=2 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=1 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=mr height=18>ONLINE STANDINGS - CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Group stage, Group G</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=398 border=1><TBODY><TR align=middle bgColor=#ffffff><TD width=20> </TD><TD width=150>Clubs</TD><TD width=30>P</TD><TD width=30>W</TD><TD width=30>D</TD><TD width=30>L</TD><TD width=40>FA</TD><TD width=40>Pnt</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=#d6d9d0 height=17><TD>1</TD><TD align=left> Liverpool</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>6-1</TD><TD>11</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=#f9f9f9 height=17><TD>2</TD><TD align=left> Chelsea</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>7-1</TD><TD>10</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=#d6d9d0 height=17><TD>3</TD><TD align=left> Betis</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>3-6</TD><TD>7</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=#f9f9f9 height=17><TD>4</TD><TD align=left> Anderlecht</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>0-8</TD><TD>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD vAlign=top align=right width=150 background=/images/mr/right.gif><TABLE borderColor=#008080 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=149 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=plu>Line up</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=tbl2 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=149 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=5></TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 25.</TD><TD>Jose Reina</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 3.</TD><TD>Steve Finnan</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 4.</TD><TD>Sami Hyypia</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 6.</TD><TD>John Arne Riise</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 21.</TD><TD>Djimi Traore</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 23.</TD><TD>Jamie Carragher</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 8.</TD><TD>Steven Gerrard</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 10.</TD><TD>Javier Luis Garcia</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 16.</TD><TD>Dietmar Hamann</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 15.</TD><TD>Peter Crouch</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 22.</TD><TD>Mohamed Sissoko</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE borderColor=#008080 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=149 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=plu>Bench</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=tbl2 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=149 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=5></TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 20.</TD><TD>Scott Carson</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 17.</TD><TD>Josemi</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 28.</TD><TD>Stephen Warnock</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 7.</TD><TD>Harry Kewell</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 9.</TD><TD>Djibrill Cisse</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 19.</TD><TD>Fernando Morientes</TD></TR><TR><TD width=20> 24.</TD><TD>Florent Sinama Pongolle</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><CENTER>

Coach: Rafael Benitez</CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

These lineups look more primed for Chelsea and the under than the over...

colton · Dec 6, 2005

Hi to all,

really surprised, not to say shocked that everybody is praising Schalke so high and talking so badly about Milan.
Let's get starting be realistic: When Milan plays the way it can Schalke is 2 classes under the level of Milan. I just hope everybody is talking so high about Schalke because Milan struggles and that no one really thinks that Schalke is nearly equal as Milan. I don't know where the respect comes. Yes, i know, Schalke has stopped the downfall a little bit lately and Milan struggles, but they are still 10 points behind Bayern Munich in league and were favoured before season started to win the title. The defense is not that solid at all like everybody is talking about. What is to consider is, that this defense is conceiding everytime easy goals. In Midfield everything depends on Lincoln and how he is playing. And lately he is playing up and down, so you can flip a coin and see what you get. More important is, this team is absolutely not battle tested under pressure. They have folded last season in Bundesliga under pressure like icecream in the sun. And last point: The attack of Schalke is probably one of the worst in CL. Kuranyi could not hit the ocean if he was swimming in it. So, if Schalke goes through to next round, it will be because Milan continues to struggle, but not because Schalke is such strong team.

cheers and good luck to all

colton

AFLGuru · Dec 6, 2005

Here we go! 1-0 PSV... the fun begins in Milan hopefully...

HPark1 · Dec 6, 2005

Milan, long range free kick. 1-0

Schalke better hope Fenerbache gets something in Eindhoven.

Woah, quick reply 1-1!!!!!!1

AFLGuru · Dec 6, 2005

Exactly what I didn't want to see, as 2-0 Milan is a very reasonable final right now... Really gotta hope Schalke draws level and all is left to play for in the last 15-20 minutes.